Rafael Jodar edges closer to Turin as he faces Shanghai rematch with Casper Ruud
Match News & Form
Casper Ruud has regularly been involved in the race for ATP Finals qualification at this stage of the season in recent years, and he has succeeded more often than not. This year, though, he is out of the Turin picture, and his main objective is simply to return to the top 20. Even that is proving difficult, as he has won back-to-back matches only once since the French Open in May. Whether he can turn things around in Paris also remains doubtful, as he has not progressed beyond the second round here since 2022, with each of his last three campaigns, in 2023, 2024 and 2025, ending at exactly that stage.
Rafael Jodar held on to eighth place, the final qualifying spot, by the thinnest of margins at the end of last week, putting his Turin fate in his own hands as he arrives at the Paris Masters. His main job is to finish with a better result than ninth-placed Alex de Minaur, which should be enough to seal his ATP Finals berth. Other Turin hopefuls would need a really big result in Paris to overtake him, and the chances of the permutations going against him look slim. He passed his first test in promising fashion, dominating Alejandro Tabilo 6-2, 6-3.
Head-to-Head: Rafael Jodar leads 1-0
The pair met at the Shanghai Masters a few weeks ago, where Jodar fought back from a set down to beat Casper Ruud.
Stats & Facts
In seven previous appearances at the Paris Masters, Ruud has won back-to-back matches only once, during his quarterfinal run in 2021.
Ruud holds a 3-4 record against top-10 opponents this year.
Rafael Jodar made his Masters main-draw debut only this year and has compiled an impressive 23-7 record at that level.
Jodar holds an impressive 52-12 record against players ranked outside the top 20 this year.
Betting Analysis
Rafael Jodar has been a winning machine this year, which is remarkable for a player so young in his first full season on the main tour. With 58 wins against just 19 losses and a string of high-level performances, he starts as a solid favourite, driven by the motivation to seal his Turin spot.
That said, Casper Ruud is not without a chance. Jodar has pushed his body to the limit and has to keep pushing further to make his Turin dream a reality, which can make it difficult to sustain a high level throughout a match, as some of his stumbles in recent weeks have shown. If Ruud puts up a fighting performance like he did in Shanghai, windows of opportunity may open up for him.