Norwich are the bookmakers’ favourite, with a winning probability of 46% from the odds offered on this match. Derby host Norwich at Pride Park in round 14 of the Championship.
Current Form - Derby
Derby’s last league match ended in a 4-1 loss away to Millwall. After 13 matches, they are 23rd with seven points, a record of one win, four draws and eight losses, and a goal record of 11-25. Their last five matches brought two draws and three losses; across that span they scored 0.8 goals per match, matching their season figure, while conceding 2.2 compared with 1.9 for the season. Derby’s expected goals (xG) stands at 1.02 against a league average of 1.45, while their expected goals conceded (xGA) is 1.95.
Current Form - Norwich
Norwich arrive after a 3-2 home win over Watford in their last league match. They sit 15th on 15 points after 13 matches, with five wins and eight losses and a goal record of 23-24. Their last five matches produced two wins and three losses; during that period they scored 1.4 goals per match and conceded 1.4, compared with season figures of 1.8 and 1.8. Norwich’s expected goals (xG) is 1.48 against a league average of 1.45, while expected goals conceded (xGA) is 1.5.
Head-to-Head Record
Derby have won one, drawn one and lost three of their last five meetings with Norwich, with an average of 2.4 goals per match across those games. Last season, Norwich beat Derby 2-1 with Norwich at home and Derby away.
Key Players to Watch and Missing Players
Bobby Clark, a midfielder, has three goals and two assists for Derby. Filip Bilbija, a forward, has played six matches and recorded one goal, while midfielder Sammie Szmodics has played 12 matches, scoring three goals and providing one assist. Sondre Langas is unavailable with an injury, and Lewis Travis is unavailable with an ankle injury.
Mathias Kvistgaarden has three goals and four assists for Norwich in 10 matches, while Paris Maghoma has two goals and two assists in eight matches. Defender Ruairi McConville has one goal and one assist in 12 matches. Mohamed Toure, Norwich’s top scorer with five goals, is unavailable with a shoulder injury; Pelle Mattsson is a doubt with health problems, while Papa Amadou Diallo is unavailable through injury.
Key Numbers
↔️ Duel win rate: Derby 47% vs Norwich 52%
Derby
➖ Headed goals: 0.00 per match (worst in the league, league average 0.21)
➖ Shots on target conceded: 6.0 per match (worst in the league, league average 4.3)
Norwich
➖ Big chances conceded: 2.9 per match (4th worst, league average 2.3)
➖ Errors leading to shot: 0.77 per match (3rd worst, league average 0.45)
Match Notes
Dion Sanderson has received one red card in Derby’s last 10 matches, with that dismissal coming two matches ago. Shane Duffy is now at Derby after a three-season spell at Norwich, where he made 87 appearances and scored five goals.
Betting Insights
The odds put over 2.5 goals at 56%, while the probability for both teams to score is 58%.
Goals implied by the odds: 2.9
These figures come from the odds bookmakers offered on this match, read two days before kickoff.
This content was generated using AI.